Russia is still fighting in Ukraine, but the math is getting harder. Last year, Collin Meisel and Mathew Burrows argued Moscow could absorb Ukraine’s blows because of its big population, oil money, and factory capacity. Twelve months later, the same experts say the cracks are showing—and Russia can’t fight forever without paying a heavier price.\n\nThe big change? Ukraine’s weapons and strikes are costing Russia way more than anyone expected. In 2024, Russia’s economy shrank 3.5% under sanctions, war spending, and falling oil revenues. That’s the worst drop since 2020, and it’s forcing Moscow to burn through cash it saved after the 2022 invasion.\n\n## The numbers behind Russia’s struggle \nRussia’s defense budget hit $109 billion in 2025—up 70% from 2021, before the war. But that money isn’t buying as much as it used to. Ukraine’s long-range drones and missile strikes forced Russia to spend an extra $100 billion last year just replacing lost equipment, according to open-source trackers like Oryx. Those drones hit oil refineries, weapons depots, and even Moscow suburbs, which Russia can’t fully defend.\n\nMeanwhile, Russia’s conscription pool—the men aged 18 to 35 who can be drafted—dropped by 1.2 million since 2022. That’s because Russia lost over 350,000 soldiers in Ukraine, and birth rates in the 1990s were low. Moscow’s answer? Raise the draft age to 40 and offer bigger bonuses. But even that’s not enough to fill the gaps.\n\n## Sanctions are choking Russia’s tech and weapons \nWestern bans on chips and machine tools are crippling Russia’s factories. Before the war, Russia imported $30 billion worth of semiconductors every year. Now, that’s down 70%, according to Yale’s Russia sanctions team. That means Russia can’t make new tanks, missiles, or drones at full speed. Instead, it’s relying on old Soviet-era stockpiles and shoddy copies.\n\nThe result? Russia’s artillery shells are in short supply again, even though it’s firing 10,000 rounds a day. Its missile stockpile is down to pre-2022 levels, and its drone production is running at half capacity. That’s why you see videos of Russian troops using 1960s-era radios and jerry-rigged drones—because the modern stuff just isn’t there.\n\n## What happens next? \nRussia’s leaders aren’t giving up, but they’re running out of easy options. They’ve raised taxes, borrowed more, and cut social spending. But those moves risk angering the public. Protests over mobilizations in 2022 and 2024 showed that even Putin’s grip isn’t absolute.\n\nIf Ukraine keeps hitting Russian oil and weapons sites, Moscow’s war machine could slow even more. And if Western tech bans tighten—like the new EU rules in 2025—Russia’s factories will grind to a halt. The question isn’t if Russia will struggle, but how long it can keep going before it has to make a deal—or collapse.

What You Need to Know

  • Source: War on the Rocks
  • Published: May 06, 2026 at 17:30 UTC
  • Category: War
  • Topics: #defense · #military · #geopolitics · #war · #conflict · #can-russia-last

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Curated by GlobalBR News · May 06, 2026

🇧🇷 Resumo em Português

A Rússia mantém sua máquina de guerra na Ucrânia mesmo após dois anos de conflito, mas novas análises revelam que as pressões sobre sua economia e capacidade militar estão se tornando insustentáveis. Relatórios recentes de especialistas ocidentais e russos indicam que, enquanto Moscou ainda detém recursos consideráveis, os custos da guerra — em vidas humanas, equipamentos e sanções internacionais — começam a cobrar um preço cada vez mais alto, levantando dúvidas sobre até quando o Kremlin poderá sustentar o esforço bélico sem sofrer colapsos internos ou estratégicos.

Para o Brasil e os países lusófonos, esse cenário tem implicações diretas, especialmente em um momento em que a guerra afeta cadeias globais de suprimentos, preços de commodities e a segurança energética. Além disso, o conflito reacendeu debates sobre a dependência brasileira de fertilizantes russos e a necessidade de diversificar parcerias estratégicas para evitar vulnerabilidades futuras. A resistência ucraniana, agora reforçada com armamentos ocidentais de última geração, coloca Moscou em uma posição cada vez mais delicada, forçando o governo Putin a fazer escolhas difíceis entre priorizar a guerra ou a estabilidade interna.

O próximo passo deve ser observado nos próximos meses: caso a Ucrânia consiga consolidar vitórias no campo de batalha e a Rússia não consiga repor suas perdas de forma eficaz, o Kremlin pode se ver obrigado a buscar uma saída negociada — ou enfrentar o risco de uma crise econômica e social sem precedentes.

🇪🇸 Resumen en Español

Rusia mantiene su ofensiva en Ucrania con un desgaste militar y económico que ya empieza a pasar factura. Un análisis actualizado revela los primeros signos de fatiga en su ejército y en las arcas del Estado, cuestionando cuánto podrá resistir antes de que las grietas se hagan insalvables.

Más de un año después del inicio de la invasión, el conflicto ha demostrado ser una prueba de resistencia para Moscú. La combinación de sanciones internacionales, el aumento del gasto en defensa y las bajas humanas —estimadas en cientos de miles— comienza a erosionar su capacidad operativa. Para los hispanohablantes, este escenario subraya la importancia de entender cómo las decisiones geopolíticas de potencias como Rusia pueden tener efectos globales, desde la inflación hasta la seguridad energética, pasando por el papel de Europa como escenario secundario en la sombra de la guerra.