The U.S. inflation rate is poised to climb to 6% in the second quarter of 2022, the highest level since February 1982, according to a survey of top economic forecasters released Friday by CNBC. The projection underscores growing concerns over the fastest price surge in four decades, fueled by soaring energy and food costs. The survey, conducted amid mounting pressure on the Federal Reserve to curb inflation, signals that relief for consumers may not arrive soon.

Economists polled by CNBC expect the inflation rate to peak above 6% before stabilizing later in the year. The forecast aligns with recent government data showing consumer prices surged 8.5% in March, the largest annual increase since December 1981. Rising gasoline, housing, and food prices continue to drive the upward trend, with little sign of abating in the near term. The Federal Reserve has already begun raising interest rates to cool demand, but the lagging effects of previous stimulus measures complicate efforts to tame inflation.

Federal Reserve under scrutiny as inflation pressures mount

The Federal Reserve faces intensifying criticism for its delayed response to inflation, which many economists argue has allowed price pressures to spiral out of control. The central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.25% in March, its first hike since 2018, but forecasters say more aggressive action may be needed. Some analysts warn that a 0.5% increase at the next policy meeting in May could be necessary to signal seriousness in tackling inflation. The Fed’s dual mandate of maximizing employment and stabilizing prices has been tested as unemployment remains near historic lows while inflation soars.

Households and businesses are feeling the pinch, with wages failing to keep pace with rising costs. The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows real average hourly earnings fell 2.7% over the past year, the largest drop since 1980. Small businesses, already grappling with supply chain disruptions, are particularly vulnerable to higher input costs. The National Federation of Independent Business reported that 78% of small business owners raised prices in March, a record high in the survey’s 48-year history.

Energy and food costs remain primary drivers of inflation

Fuel prices have surged nearly 50% over the past year, driven by the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russian oil. Gasoline costs hit a record $4.22 per gallon nationally last week, according to AAA, up from $2.88 a year ago. Food prices have also climbed 8.8% annually, the steepest increase since 1981, with staples like eggs, meat, and dairy leading the rise. Economists warn that further disruptions to global supply chains could exacerbate the problem, particularly if the conflict in Eastern Europe escalates.

The Biden administration has pointed to global factors like the war and supply chain bottlenecks as key drivers, but critics argue domestic policies, including stimulus spending and regulatory constraints, have contributed to inflationary pressures. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged the challenge in a recent interview, stating that inflation remains “unacceptably high” and that the administration is working to address supply chain issues. Meanwhile, Republicans have seized on the issue, blaming the administration’s spending plans for fueling demand without sufficient production increases.

What happens next? Economic outlook remains uncertain

Forecasters expect inflation to ease gradually in the second half of 2022, but the timeline and extent of the decline remain uncertain. The Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting on May 4 will be closely watched for signals on further rate hikes. Economists at Goldman Sachs predict a 0.5% increase, while others foresee a more cautious 0.25% move. The central bank is also expected to begin reducing its $9 trillion balance sheet to further tighten monetary policy.

Consumers and businesses are bracing for continued financial strain. Retail sales data released Friday showed a 0.5% decline in March, the first drop in three months, as higher prices discouraged spending. Analysts warn that if inflation remains elevated, it could erode consumer confidence, slow economic growth, and trigger a recession. The International Monetary Fund recently downgraded its global growth forecast, citing inflation and geopolitical risks as key threats. For now, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but the coming months will test its ability to weather the storm of rising prices.

What You Need to Know

  • Source: CNBC
  • Published: May 15, 2026 at 18:08 UTC
  • Category: Business
  • Topics: #cnbc · #finance · #economy · #business · #inflation · #friday

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Curated by GlobalBR News · May 15, 2026

🇧🇷 Resumo em Português

A inflação nos Estados Unidos deve atingir 6% no segundo trimestre, o maior surto desde 1982, segundo economistas de ponta, acendendo alertas globais e reacendendo temores de uma crise prolongada. O choque nos preços ao consumidor nos EUA, uma das maiores economias do mundo, não só abala o poder de compra dos americanos como também reverbera pelo planeta, especialmente em países dependentes de importações e com cadeias produtivas integradas, caso do Brasil.

No Brasil, a escalada inflacionária americana agrava ainda mais a pressão sobre os preços de commodities e insumos industriais, já pressionados pela alta do dólar e pela guerra na Ucrânia. A dependência brasileira de exportações como soja, minério de ferro e petróleo — cujos valores são atrelados ao mercado internacional — pode sofrer impactos significativos, comprometendo a balança comercial e o crescimento econômico. Além disso, o Federal Reserve (Fed), banco central dos EUA, enfrenta agora a difícil tarefa de conter a inflação com aumentos agressivos de juros, o que pode reduzir a liquidez global e afetar investimentos estrangeiros em mercados emergentes como o Brasil.

Se confirmado, o cenário exige atenção redobrada do Banco Central brasileiro, que já luta para manter a inflação dentro da meta, e lança dúvidas sobre o ritmo de recuperação econômica brasileira em 2024.

🇪🇸 Resumen en Español

Las principales voces del análisis económico auguran un nuevo pico inflacionario en EE.UU., con un alza del 6% en el segundo trimestre, la mayor escalada de precios desde los años 80, lo que amenaza con tensar aún más la política monetaria del país.

Este repunte, impulsado por el encarecimiento de la energía y los alimentos, refleja la fragilidad de la recuperación postpandemia y obliga a la Reserva Federal a acelerar las subidas de tipos, algo que podría enfriar el crecimiento y encarecer el crédito para millones de hogares hispanos en EE.UU., desde hipotecas hasta préstamos estudiantiles.