President Donald Trump’s plan to suspend the 18.4-cent federal gas tax for three months won’t do much for drivers at the pump—but it will gut the Highway Trust Fund by about $10 billion. That’s the warning from economists and transportation experts, who say the move amounts to a political stunt rather than real relief. The federal tax makes up just 14% of what drivers pay per gallon, and oil prices—not taxes—determine most of the cost. Gas averaged $3.50 a gallon this week, far below 2022 peaks but still painful for households. The White House argues the holiday would ease the burden, but analysts call it a drop in the bucket compared to global crude prices set by OPEC+ and market speculation. The tax suspension would last from Memorial Day to Labor Day, a stretch when families drive more, but the price drop would be barely noticeable. Retailers like Costco already price-match competitors, and stations often absorb tax cuts to stay competitive rather than pass savings to customers. Even if gas fell 15 cents per gallon—the most optimistic estimate—the average driver would save about $20 over the summer. That’s less than a tank of gas in most states.

The government would lose billions for roads

The bigger problem is the funding hole the holiday would create. The federal gas tax brings in roughly $40 billion a year to repair highways and bridges, and suspending it for three months would drain about $10 billion from the Highway Trust Fund. That fund already faces a $140 billion shortfall over the next decade, forcing Congress to prop it up with general tax dollars. Without fixes, states could see delays in projects like pothole repairs in Ohio or bridge upgrades in Pennsylvania. The U.S. already has 43,000 structurally deficient bridges, and states like California and Texas rely on federal money for major interstate upgrades. Suspending the tax would shift more of that burden to state budgets already stretched thin by inflation and declining gas-tax revenue from electric vehicles. Even if Congress later restores the tax, the lost revenue would force painful cuts to future projects. The American Society of Civil Engineers gives U.S. roads a ‘D’ grade, and this move would make it worse.

The White House argues the gas tax holiday would boost the economy by putting more cash in drivers’ pockets. But most of that money would go to oil companies and refiners, not consumers—especially since gas stations rarely cut prices by the full tax amount. A 2022 study by the Brookings Institution found that only about 30% of gas-tax cuts are passed on to drivers. The rest gets eaten by profits or higher refining costs. Even if stations did cut prices, the effect would be temporary. Oil prices are volatile, and OPEC+ could easily raise production cuts later this year, sending prices back up. The holiday also ignores the real drivers of gas prices: Russia’s war in Ukraine, refinery shutdowns for maintenance, and Wall Street betting on fuel futures. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects gas prices to fall this summer—but not because of the tax holiday.

States aren’t buying the idea

Governors from both parties are pushing back. New York Governor Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, called the idea ‘a gimmick’ that would hurt road projects. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a Republican, said his state wouldn’t participate, arguing it would do little for drivers. Even Texas Transportation Commission Chair Greg Abbott (then a gubernatorial candidate) opposed suspending the tax in 2022, saying it would ‘undermine long-term infrastructure funding.’ The pushback shows how politically fraught the idea is. Republicans want to show they’re helping drivers, but they don’t want to gut road funding. Democrats oppose the move because it benefits Big Oil without addressing climate change or energy costs. The only clear winners are fossil fuel companies, which get to sell more gas without the tax dragging down prices.

What happens next depends on Congress. Trump can’t suspend the tax unilaterally—only Congress can. Lawmakers are already split, with some Democrats pushing for a windfall tax on oil companies instead. Others want to extend the tax holiday but pair it with a billion-dollar boost to the Highway Trust Fund. Either way, the fight highlights a bigger problem: America’s roads are crumbling, and no one’s figured out how to pay for them in a world shifting to electric cars. The gas tax was designed for a 20th-century economy, and it’s not keeping up. Until Congress fixes the funding model, drivers will keep seeing potholes, not lower prices.

The next few months will tell if voters care more about a few extra bucks in their wallets or the roads they drive on every day. Either way, the gas tax holiday won’t solve either problem.

What You Need to Know

  • Source: Wired
  • Published: May 15, 2026 at 10:30 UTC
  • Category: Technology
  • Topics: #wired · #tech · #science · #trump · #federal-gas-tax · #holiday-isn

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Curated by GlobalBR News · May 15, 2026

🇧🇷 Resumo em Português

O presidente dos EUA, Donald Trump, anunciou um “feriado” na cobrança da taxa federal sobre gasolina, mas especialistas alertam: a medida terá pouco impacto nos preços nos postos e ainda pode agravar a crise nas estradas americanas. A ideia, vendida como um alívio imediato para o bolso dos motoristas, promete economizar cerca de 18 centavos por galão nos Estados Unidos, mas economistas e engenheiros de transportes são céticos quanto ao real benefício aos consumidores.

No Brasil, onde a discussão sobre a carga tributária sobre combustíveis sempre gera polêmica, a proposta norte-americana serve como alerta sobre os riscos de políticas públicas que desconsideram o equilíbrio entre alívio financeiro e manutenção da infraestrutura. Aqui, a dependência de receitas de impostos para financiar obras rodoviárias é ainda mais crítica, já que grande parte das estradas depende de verbas federais. Além disso, a experiência internacional mostra que cortes temporários em tributos não costumam refletir diretamente na redução dos preços ao consumidor, pois as distribuidoras podem absorver parte do benefício ou até mesmo ajustar margens.

A medida, que ainda precisa de aprovação no Congresso dos EUA, pode se tornar um caso de estudo para o Brasil, onde governantes já debatem alternativas para reduzir o peso dos impostos sobre gasolina sem prejudicar investimentos em infraestrutura.

🇪🇸 Resumen en Español

El expresidente Donald Trump ha propuesto suspender temporalmente el impuesto federal a la gasolina en Estados Unidos, una medida que, según los expertos, tendrá un impacto mínimo en los precios al consumidor pero reducirá drásticamente los fondos destinados a reparar y mantener las carreteras.

La iniciativa, que busca aliviar el bolsillo de los automovilistas ante la escalada de precios energéticos, tiene un alcance limitado: los impuestos federales representan solo alrededor del 12% del coste total de la gasolina, por lo que su eliminación temporal apenas se notaría en el precio final. Además, la pérdida de recaudación —unos 10.000 millones de dólares anuales— debilitaría los programas de infraestructuras, precisamente en un momento en que el país enfrenta graves problemas de mantenimiento en sus redes viarias. Para los hispanohablantes en EE.UU., muchos de ellos en comunidades con menos recursos y alta dependencia del transporte privado, esta propuesta no solo no resolvería el problema de fondo, sino que podría agravarlo a largo plazo.