📰 Continuing coverage: UAE builds second West-East oil pipeline to bypass Strait of Hormuz

Global oil stockpiles are on track to hit record lows by May 31 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, according to a new warning from UBS. The Swiss bank’s analysis projects a sharp decline in global crude reserves due to the disruption in one of the world’s most vital oil shipping lanes. Nearly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making its closure a severe threat to global energy stability.

The warning comes as tensions in the region escalate, raising concerns about prolonged disruptions. UBS’s report highlights that global oil inventories are already tightening, with commercial stocks in developed nations falling by 5% over the past month. If the strait remains closed, refiners and governments worldwide could face severe shortages, pushing crude prices higher and straining energy markets.

Global oil markets brace for impact

Oil markets are reacting to the potential closure, with Brent crude futures rising over 4% in early trading Monday. Analysts at Goldman Sachs echoed UBS’s concerns, stating that a prolonged disruption could reduce global oil supply by up to 5 million barrels per day. The loss would dwarf previous supply shocks, including the 2020 Saudi oil field attacks and the 2019 Iranian tanker seizures.

The Strait of Hormuz’s closure would not only cut supply but also force tankers to take longer, costlier routes around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope or through the Suez Canal. Shipping costs could surge by 30%, further squeezing refiners already grappling with thin profit margins. Industry experts warn that even a short closure could trigger a supply crunch within weeks.

Governments and refiners scramble for solutions

Countries heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil, including China, India, and Japan, are monitoring the situation closely. Japan’s government has already instructed refiners to prepare for potential shortages, while India has begun diverting some crude purchases to the U.S. and Latin America. China, the world’s largest oil importer, has not yet announced emergency measures but is reportedly considering releasing strategic reserves.

Refiners in Europe and the U.S. are also adjusting plans. European buyers are increasing purchases from the U.S. and Norway, while U.S. refiners are signaling willingness to ramp up exports to offset lost Middle Eastern supply. However, logistical constraints and refining capacity limits may hinder swift adjustments.

Long-term risks loom over energy security

The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz underscores broader vulnerabilities in global oil supply chains. The route has been a flashpoint for decades, with Iran frequently threatening to block it during geopolitical disputes. The latest tensions stem from regional conflicts and sanctions, raising questions about the stability of a supply chain already strained by years of underinvestment in new production.

UBS’s report suggests that if the strait remains closed through June, global oil inventories could fall below 2008 crisis levels, triggering emergency measures from governments. The International Energy Agency (IEA) may coordinate a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves, as it did in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Such measures could provide temporary relief but are unlikely to solve the underlying supply risks.

What happens next depends largely on geopolitical developments. A de-escalation of tensions could reopen the strait within days, easing immediate pressure. Conversely, a prolonged closure would force markets into uncharted territory, with unpredictable consequences for prices, inflation, and economic growth.

UBS analysts emphasize that the situation is fluid and evolving. They urge governments and industry leaders to prepare for a range of outcomes, from short-term disruptions to prolonged supply shocks. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the world avoids a historic oil supply crisis.

What You Need to Know

  • Source: CNBC
  • Published: May 16, 2026 at 13:25 UTC
  • Category: Business
  • Topics: #cnbc · #finance · #economy · #strait · #hormuz · #strait-of-hormuz-closure

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Curated by GlobalBR News · May 16, 2026

🇧🇷 Resumo em Português

O fechamento prolongado do Estreito de Ormuz, uma das principais artérias do comércio global de petróleo, coloca o mundo no limiar de uma crise energética sem precedentes, com estoques globais de combustível caminhando para bater mínimas históricas já no fim de maio. A advertência da UBS, gigante do setor financeiro, acende um alerta vermelho não apenas para países dependentes da importação de petróleo, mas também para a economia brasileira, que mesmo com a autossuficiência em óleo ainda sente os impactos de um mercado global instável.

O Estreito de Ormuz, por onde passam cerca de 20% do petróleo consumido no mundo, é um ponto nevrálgico que, se mantido fechado, poderia desestabilizar cadeias de suprimento e disparar os preços internacionais do barril. Para o Brasil, que recentemente se tornou um exportador líquido de petróleo, a situação traz tanto oportunidades quanto riscos: enquanto a alta dos preços pode impulsionar as receitas da Petrobras e das petroleiras privadas, a volatilidade do mercado pode encarecer os combustíveis domésticos e pressionar a inflação, já sensível aos humores da economia global.

Se o fechamento do estreito se estender, a próxima reunião da OPEP+ poderá ser decisiva para reequilibrar o mercado — ou agravar a crise, caso não haja consenso entre os principais produtores.

🇪🇸 Resumen en Español

El cierre prolongado del Estrecho de Ormuz amenaza con vaciar las reservas globales de crudo a mínimos históricos antes de finales de mayo, según advierte el banco suizo UBS, en un aviso que enciende las alarmas sobre el suministro energético mundial. La ruta, por la que transita cerca del 20% del petróleo global, se ha convertido en un polvorín geopolítico tras recientes tensiones que podrían estrangular el mercado.

La situación adquiere especial gravedad para Europa y Latinoamérica, regiones altamente dependientes de las importaciones energéticas. Si el bloqueo se mantiene, los precios del barril podrían dispararse, golpeando a economías ya lastradas por la inflación y ralentizando la recuperación postpandemia. Los analistas subrayan que, en un escenario así, los países con menores reservas estratégicas —como España o Brasil— serían los primeros en sufrir escasez o racionamientos, mientras que las naciones productoras, como México o Colombia, podrían aprovechar para aumentar sus exportaciones a precios más altos.