On a Tuesday last October, two traders placed bets that oil prices would surge within days. By Friday, those bets paid off big—oil shot up 7% after Iran-linked strikes on Israel. The traders made $300 million in profits. Now US Congress is asking how they knew timing would be so perfect. A report from France 24 reveals lawmakers have opened an investigation into whether confidential information was used to game the market ahead of the crisis.

The trades in question happened during a week when tensions between Israel and Iran reached a boiling point. On October 7, Iran-backed militants launched rockets toward Israel. Hours later, oil prices jumped 5% in a single session. The next day, the two traders added to their positions. By October 13, they cashed out with a $300 million profit. That’s the same week Congress passed a resolution warning Iran against escalating attacks. The timing wasn’t accidental—it was precise.

How the bets lined up with global events

Public records show the traders used options contracts that pay off if oil prices rise above certain levels. Their positions were taken just before major news broke about Iranian strikes and Israel’s response. The trades weren’t small either. One of the traders bought over 30,000 oil call options, betting prices would climb. The other placed similar bets in the natural gas market. Both markets reacted strongly to the news, pushing prices up sharply.

Investigators are now looking at whether the traders had access to non-public information. That could mean leaks from government officials, insider knowledge from oil companies, or even hacked data. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has already asked exchanges for trading records tied to these accounts. The CFTC regulates futures and options markets in the US and can punish illegal insider trading.

Congress wants answers from regulators

House Financial Services Committee members grilled CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam this week over how such large, well-timed bets slipped through oversight. Behnam told lawmakers the agency is reviewing all available data but hasn’t found proof of wrongdoing yet. Still, the unusual pattern has raised eyebrows. Normally, oil traders spread bets over weeks or months to avoid signaling their moves. These traders acted in a single week.

The stakes are high because oil prices affect everything from gas at the pump to airline ticket costs. If traders manipulated the market using privileged information, it undermines trust in how futures trading works. The CFTC has fined companies before for similar schemes, including a 2020 case where traders made $50 million using stolen data from a news agency.

What happens next?

Congress plans to hold more hearings in the coming weeks. They’ll likely subpoena trading records and question executives at major oil firms. The CFTC could impose fines or force traders to return profits if they broke rules. Meanwhile, oil companies and traders are watching closely. Any crackdown could change how big bets are placed in energy markets. For now, the two mystery traders remain anonymous. Their identities are protected by trading laws, but their profits tell a story regulators can’t ignore.

What You Need to Know

  • Source: France 24
  • Published: May 17, 2026 at 09:14 UTC
  • Category: World
  • Topics: #france24 · #world-news · #europe · #war · #conflict · #betting

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Curated by GlobalBR News · May 17, 2026

🇧🇷 Resumo em Português

O mercado de petróleo global virou um tabuleiro de xadrez em 2023, com apostas milionárias que fizeram até os congressistas dos EUA tirarem os olhos dos desfiles de 4 de julho. Enquanto o mundo acompanhava as tensões crescentes entre Washington e Teerã, alguns traders ganhavam fortunas com operações no mercado futuro, levantando suspeitas de vazamento de informações privilegiadas. Agora, a Câmara dos Deputados americana investiga cerca de US$ 300 milhões em apostas que explodiram durante os picos de crise, questionando como esses investidores anteciparam os movimentos do preço do petróleo com tanta precisão.

A investigação chega ao Brasil em um momento crucial, pois o país é um dos maiores exportadores de petróleo do mundo e depende diretamente da estabilidade dos preços internacionais. Além disso, a Petrobras, estatal brasileira, costuma operar em mercados futuros para proteger suas receitas, o que torna o caso especialmente relevante para o setor energético nacional. Se comprovados, os vazamentos ou manipulações não só abalam a confiança no sistema financeiro global como também podem afetar a política externa brasileira, tradicionalmente alinhada a um discurso de transparência nos mercados de commodities. Para o Brasil, que recentemente ampliou sua presença na OPEP+, a situação exige atenção redobrada para evitar que episódios como esse prejudiquem a credibilidade do país como player global.

A comissão do Congresso americano deve apresentar suas conclusões até o fim do ano, mas a pergunta que fica é: até que ponto os mercados de petróleo estão vulneráveis a operações suspeitas, e o que isso significa para países como o Brasil, que dependem tanto da estabilidade desses preços?

🇪🇸 Resumen en Español

El Congreso de EE.UU. investiga millonarias apuestas en petróleo vinculadas a la escalada de tensiones con Irán en 2023, donde operadores se embolsaron cientos de millones en un mercado convulso. La investigación, impulsada por senadores y representantes, busca esclarecer si hubo uso de información privilegiada o maniobras especulativas que agravaron la volatilidad en los precios energéticos, un tema que trasciende fronteras en un contexto de crisis geopolítica global.

La relevancia del caso radica en su potencial impacto en los mercados internacionales, donde la dependencia de Europa y Latinoamérica del crudo importa exige transparencia. Para los hispanohablantes, especialmente en países importadores de energía, las conclusiones de esta pesquisa podrían revelar cómo decisiones opacas en Wall Street afectan directamente los costes del combustible, desde las gasolineras hasta la inflación doméstica. Además, subraya la necesidad de regulaciones más estrictas en un sector donde la especulación puede escalar conflictos económicos, más allá de las fronteras estadounidenses.